Climate Action to Reduce Migration

Going shopping - but waist deep in water


Populism, Migration & fossil fuels

Right-wing populist leaders like Donald Trump often gain support by promising a return to “better times” by cracking down on refugees and ramping up fossil fuel extraction. However, burning more fossil fuels also fuels floods, droughts, wildfires, and mass migration – worsening the very issue that populists say they will fix.

Keep burning fossil fuels, and you’ll face more desperate people at your borders.

On the other hand, taking effective climate action could :

  • Reduce the devastation caused by wildfires, floods, and droughts.
  • Prevent conflicts triggered by resource scarcity.
  • Protect livelihoods and communities from sudden collapse.
  • Enable people to remain in their homelands.
  • Decrease the waves of forced migration.

To reduce mass migration, take climate action.


Australian climate disasters

In Australia, we’ve already witnessed the profound impact of climate disasters, for example:

  • The repeated flooding of Lismore devastated the community.
  • The catastrophic bushfires of 2019–2020 forced the evacuation of residents and holidaymakers from Mallacoota by the navy: Australian climate refugees.

Events like this highlight the urgent need for climate action—to save our nurturing environment and create a more equitable and secure future for all people with a reduced need for mass migration.



The populism feedback cycle

Failing to act on climate reinforces a dangerous cycle: worsening environmental crises lead to more displacement, fuelling right-wing populism, which tends to increase global heating.

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Higher global temperaturesMore extreme weather


Less climate actionMore conflict over land, water, food & housing
More right-wing populismMore migration

Consider each cause and effect in this “populism feedback cycle”:


(1) Global heating brings extreme weather

Higher global temperatures tend to cause more extreme weather: extreme storms, floods, droughts, fires, heat, and occasionally intense cold.


(2) Extreme weather brings conflict

More extreme weather tends to cause more conflict, e.g. severe drought can cause conflict over water. Extreme weather can also cause conflict indirectly by aggravating existing instability. Here are some examples:

** Climate change contributed to the war in Syria and mass migration Into Europe. The long-term decrease in rainfall and warmer temperatures in the broader region increased the severity of the Syrian drought from 2006 to 2010, contributing to the uprising against the al-Assad regime.
(Global warming contributed to Syria’s 2011 uprising: The Guardian: March 2015)
(Map of the Mediterranean showing areas with dry winters from 1971 to 2010: Washington Post: Sep 2013)
(Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria: Peter H Gleick: Pacific Institute: Oakland: California: 2014)

** Flooding is forcing people off their land in Bangladesh.
(Boats pass over where our land was: Bangladesh’s climate refugees: The Guardian: Jan 2018)

** Fish populations are moving as the oceans warm. In 2006, mackerel began appearing in Iceland, leading to a dispute over catch quotas between Iceland and the European Union.
(Climate change prompts ‘mackerel wars’: Public Radio International: July 2013)


(3) Conflict Brings Migration

More conflict tends to cause more migration.

Syria had a civil war, terrorism, repression, hunger, drought, poverty, and homelessness. Many Syrians, 5.6 million, became refugees, mainly fleeing to the Middle East, and 6.2 million displaced Syrians moved inside Syria.

(Forced to flee: Top countries refugees are coming from: World Vision)


(4) Migration brings populism

An increase in migration tends to increase right-wing populism in the countries that the migrants flee to, bringing an increase in:

  • protection of borders,
  • preservation of cultural identity,
  • national interest rather than international interests,
  • rejection of international agreements and law, &
  • a longing for life as it was in the past.

We have seen this in:

  • Europe: Hungary and Greece
  • France: In EU parliamentary voting, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party narrowly beat President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party into second place.
  • Australia with the Coalition and “stop the boats.”
  • The USA, with Donald Trump’s “build the wall.”
  • Britain and the exit from Europe: Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party surged to the top of the polls. The party has no official policies on climate change.
  • Even liberal Sweden is being impacted.

(Can the much-vaunted Nordic welfare model survive immigration?: The Age: 13 July 2019)

(The rise and rise of far-right populists: why democracies can’t be smug: Duncan McDonnell: Griffith University: The Age: 6 Jan 2023)


(5) Populism cuts climate action

Increased right-wing populism tends to decrease climate action and international efforts to stem climate change.

(What the Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Europe Means for Climate Science Denial: DeSmog UK: March 2019)


(6) Climate action cuts feed climate change

Reduced climate action will extend the period of high greenhouse gas levels and so increase global temperatures.


A Cascade of destructive feedbacks

As climate change gains strength, this populism feedback cycle could work with other feedback cycles that also tend to increase global temperatures – and become dominant.

This site describes these other feedback cycles on Amplifying Feedback Cycles and Climate Change.


A humane way of limiting mass migration

To preserve our nurturing climate, we must counter this populism-amplifying feedback cycle.

Keeping on using fossil fuels will generate more mass migration.

We need effective climate action to save our nurturing environment and as a humane way of limiting mass migration and conflict.


Updated 18 Feb 2025