Climate Action to Reduce Migration
Populism, Migration & fossil fuels
The 2024 re-election of Donald Trump in the USA is another stark reminder of how right-wing populist leaders often gain support by promising a return to “better times.” Their agendas often focus on reviving old values, implementing harsh anti-migration measures, propping up declining industries, and doubling down on fossil fuel extraction and use.
Fossil fuels & mass migration
However, history and science show that policies like “drill, baby, drill” exacerbate climate change, leading to devastating consequences such as floods, droughts, and wildfires. These disasters not only inflict immense human suffering but also drive mass migration—ironically worsening the very issue that such leaders claim to address.
The message is clear: “Keep burning fossil fuels, and you’ll face more desperate people at your borders.”
Climate action & mass migration
On the other hand, taking climate action can address the root causes of displacement. By mitigating the impacts of climate-driven disasters, we can:
- Reduce the devastation caused by wildfires, floods, and droughts.
- Protect livelihoods and communities from sudden collapse.
- Prevent conflicts triggered by resource scarcity and social instability.
- Enable people to remain in their homelands.
- Decrease the waves of forced migration.
The emphasis must shift to this: “To reduce mass migration, take climate action.”
Australian climate disasters
In Australia, we’ve already witnessed the profound impact of climate disasters, for example:
- The repeated flooding of Lismore left entire communities devastated.
- The catastrophic bushfires of 2019–2020 forced the evacuation of residents and holidaymakers from Mallacoota by the navy: Australian climate refugees.
Such events highlight the urgent need for climate action—not just as an environmental imperative but as a humane and strategic approach to mitigating mass migration and ensuring global stability.
The choice is clear: Climate action is essential not only to preserve our nurturing climate but also to create a more equitable and secure future for all.
The populism feedback cycle
Failing to act perpetuates a dangerous cycle: worsening environmental crises lead to more displacement, fuelling right-wing populism and delaying the solutions we desperately need. This vicious loop threatens not only our nurturing environment but also our ability to build a stable and humane future.
Ignoring climate action as a way of limiting mass migration feeds a frightening dynamic that tends to amplify global heating.
| Higher global temperatures |  | More extreme weather |
 |  | |
| Less climate action | More conflict over land, water, food & housing | |
| | |
| More right-wing populism |  | More migration |
Consider each cause and effect in this “populism feedback cycle”:
(1) Global heating brings extreme weather
Higher global temperatures tend to cause more extreme weather: extreme storms, floods, droughts, fires, heat, and occasionally intense cold.
(2) Extreme weather brings conflict
More extreme weather tends to cause more conflict, e.g. severe drought can cause conflict over water. Extreme weather can also cause conflict indirectly by aggravating existing instability. Here are some examples:
** Climate change contributed to the war in Syria and mass migration Into Europe. The long-term decrease in rainfall and warmer temperatures in the broader region increased the severity of the Syrian drought from 2006 to 2010, contributing to the uprising against the al-Assad regime.
(Global warming contributed to Syria’s 2011 uprising: The Guardian: March 2015)
(Map of the Mediterranean showing areas with dry winters from 1971 to 2010: Washington Post: Sep 2013)
(Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria: Peter H Gleick: Pacific Institute: Oakland: California: 2014)
** Flooding is forcing people off their land in Bangladesh.
(Boats pass over where our land was: Bangladesh’s climate refugees: The Guardian: Jan 2018)
** Fish populations are moving as the oceans warm. In 2006, mackerel began appearing in Iceland, leading to a dispute over catch quotas between Iceland and the European Union.
(Climate change prompts ‘mackerel wars’: Public Radio International: July 2013)
(3) Conflict Brings Migration
More conflict tends to cause more migration.
Syria had a civil war, terrorism, repression, hunger, drought, poverty, and homelessness. Many Syrians, 5.6 million, became refugees, mainly fleeing to the Middle East, and 6.2 million displaced Syrians moved inside Syria.
(Forced to flee: Top countries refugees are coming from: World Vision)
(4) Migration brings populism
An increase in migration tends to increase right-wing populism in the countries that the migrants flee to, bringing an increase in:
- protection of borders,
- preservation of cultural identity,
- national interest rather than international interests,
- rejection of international agreements and law, &
- a longing for life as it was in the past.
We have seen this in:
- Europe: Hungary and Greece
- France: In EU parliamentary voting, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party narrowly beat President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party into second place.
- Australia with the Coalition and “stop the boats.”
- The USA, with Donald Trump’s “build the wall.”
- Britain and the exit from Europe: Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party surged to the top of the polls. The party has no official policies on climate change.
- Even liberal Sweden is being impacted.
(Can the much-vaunted Nordic welfare model survive immigration?: The Age: 13 July 2019)
(The rise and rise of far-right populists: why democracies can’t be smug: Duncan McDonnell: Griffith University: The Age: 6 Jan 2023)
(5) Populism cuts climate action
Increased right-wing populism tends to decrease climate action and international efforts to stem climate change.
(What the Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Europe Means for Climate Science Denial: DeSmog UK: March 2019)
(6) Climate action cuts feed climate change
Reduced climate action will extend the period of high greenhouse gas levels and so increase global temperatures.
A Cascade of destructive feedbacks
As climate change gains strength, this populism feedback cycle could work with other feedback cycles that also tend to increase global temperatures – and become dominant.
This site describes these other feedback cycles on Amplifying Feedback Cycles and Climate Change.
A humane way of limiting mass migration
To preserve our nurturing climate, we must counter this populism-amplifying feedback cycle.
Forging ahead with exploiting fossil fuels generates mass migration.
Climate action is not just an environmental necessity. It’s necessary as a humane way of limiting mass migration, a cornerstone for a more stable and equitable future.
Updated 16 November 2024